电信CIS报警三字段信息的实时实现方案

本文介绍了电信话务各特服号报警指挥中心如何遵循信息产业部“信息不准拷贝、不准联网拷贝、报警时送三字段信息”的有关指示,建立能及时、准确地获得拨打各特服号码的主叫用户信息的实用系统,提出了相应的解决方案。经系统测试和实际运行,效果显著,具有广泛的应用前景。     

Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets

We examine the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. We develop a method for disentangling the behavior of fund managers from that of underlying investors. For both managers and investors, we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading: mutual funds systematically sell losers and buy winners. Selling current losers and buying current winners is stronger during crises, and equally strong for managers and investors. Selling past losers and buying past winners is stronger for managers. Managers and investors also practice contagion trading—they sell (buy) assets from one country when asset prices fall (rise) in another.     

中国外贸进出口对税收的影响：理论与实证

对外贸易对中国的税收有怎样的影响?回答这一问题，对制定贸易政策有重要的现实意义。本文对1-2-3模型进行修正，将总产出区分为4种具有不同税收特征的产品，构建相应的税收模型，从理论上分析了对外贸易对税收有正面的影响。实际测算显示，一般贸易出口每增加1元人民币，会相应带动当年税收增加0．4～0．5元人民币。通过对季度数据的Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型分析，本文发现出口增加对税收有持续的正面影响。     

论国际金融市场上利率传导的机理及表现

当国际金融市场的利率与一国利率存在差距时 ,国际资本便会流入或流出 ,随之又会影响其他国家的资本供给和利率。由于利差的经常存在 ,国际游资数额巨大 ,利率差的传导渠道不容低估。本文从利率的流动性效应着手 ,运用开放经济条件下利率传导的基本原理及利率、汇率和通胀率之间的关联性 ,分析国际金融市场利率传导机制的表现 ,得出来自利率、汇率平价机制的市场性传导在金融全球化过程中有力地影响着各国的利率水平 ,并且通过实际利率的变化影响经济运行步伐。     

Vertical Product Differentiation and Advertising

A duopoly model is developed in which firms' strategic variables include brand quality, the number of distinct market segments to enter and price. Informative advertising is used to overcome consumer ignorance about brands. In contrast to many existing models in which firms engage in price competition, the subgame perfect equilibria of the game are not characterised by the production of vertically differentiated products. Further, whilst the firms typically produce identical high quality products, in some circumstances the production of homogeneous low quality brands can be an equilibrium strategy.     

Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

高速铁路车站到发线运用优化研究

高速铁路车站到发线运用计划根据列车运行计划、动车组交路计划编制各列车占用到发线的起止时间,以均衡、合理使用到发线和方便旅客上下车为原则,为每一列车安排合适的到发线。在分析高速铁路车站到发线运用特点和原则的基础上,建立高速铁路车站到发线运用的0-1规划模型,并利用遗传算法求解。通过算例分析,编制长沙南站的到发线运用方案,说明方法的具体应用。     

Social contracts,markets and efficiency: Groundwater irrigation in North India

This paper uses primary data to analyze the institutions and informal markets that govern groundwater allocation in a sugarcane-cultivating village in North India. We find that, in contrast to earlier literature, the observed water trades result in efficient water allocation across farms. We interpret this and other stylized facts in terms of a social contract using a simple bargaining model with limited inter-player transfers. Poor functioning of the power sector leads to reduced pumping and a water supply constraint. Simulations show that power supply reform can significantly increase farm yields, and be financed out of increased farm profits.     

Relationship between positive psychological capital and creative performance

Despite considerable attention to the creative process and its relationship with personal characteristics, there is no published study focused directly on the relationship between the recently recognized core construct of psychological capital (PsyCap) and creative performance. Drawing from a large (N = 899) and heterogeneous sample of working adults, this study investigates PsyCap and its components (i.e., efficacy, hope, optimism, and resilience) as predictors of creative performance. Overall PsyCap predicted creative performance over and above each of the four PsyCap components. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于赤道原则的移民安置行动计划

文章简述了赤道原则体系及其适用范围，以老挝南塔河1#水电站为实例，探讨了移民安置行动计划与赤道原则的符合性。研究认为，该项移民安置行动计划与赤道原则具有一致性。